Value Calculator

Use the value calculator below to calculate your likely profit after 100 bets given the odds and your estimated percentage chance of success:

Odds Probabilty % Value

Understanding Value As A Concept

One of the keys to long-term success as a punter is finding the best value bets on offer. Professional gamblers are constantly on the lookout for markets that are offering these type of bets as in the longer term, value bets offer a far greater chance of profitability.

Before I explain this very simple to use value calculator, we need to understand the terms value and probability, in order to understand the results of the calculator in a meaningful context.

Probability: Probability is simply the chance of something occurring. If you are flipping a coin, then the probability it will land on heads is 50%, the same as it would be for landing tails. In a sporting event however, your knowledge, luck and intuition all play a key role in identifying the probability of a predicting the outcome of an event. For example, you’d have to use your knowledge and conduct a little research to discover the possibility of Arsenal beating Tottenham 2-0.

Value: In terms of this bet, value is simply how well the actual odds on offer compare to the estimated probability of the event happening. A good value bet is one which sees better odds available than would be expected by probability alone. For example, in the event of a coin toss, if a bookmaker offered 11/10 on a coin landing tails, that would be a value bet as it is above the even money probability. Conversely, if you were offered odds of 10/11, this is not a value bet as the odds are lower than the probability of the event occurring.

How To Use The Value Calculator

In the Odds section of the value betting calculator, simply enter the odds of the market you wish to back here in a decimal format. (for example, 6.00 for a 5/1 shot).

In the Probability % box, you need to use your judgement, research and intelligence to come up with an accurate figure for the probability of your chosen selection coming up. For example, if you have chosen Manchester United to win against a lower league team in the FA Cup, you may estimate that the probability of success here is 90%. However, if they are playing away to Chelsea, you may estimate that their probability of success here is closer to 50%.

This means that 50 times out of 100, you would expect Manchester United to win.

In this example, this does represent a value bet. If Manchester United are given odds of 6.00 to win against Chelsea with a 50% probability, over 100 bets you would make a profit of £200. Therefore, this is a value bet. This is the figure shown in the grey Value box upon clicking the Calculate button.

However, if Manchester United’s odds of success were given odds of just 1.90 at 50%, then this is not a value bet. As over the course of 100 bets, you’d lose £5.

Any positive figures in the Value box represent the likely profit after 100 bets at the odds and probability stated. The higher the number, then the better value the bet is.